I’m almost positive this isn’t going to work out. The New York Giants have resigned their two stalwarts on offense with Saquon Barkley getting franchise tagged and Daniel Jones given a 4-year, $160M deal, but how badly will these deals age?
Call me a pessimist if you like, but I’m 95% sure these deals are going to hurt the Giants in the long run. Especially (and mostly) the Daniel Jones mega contract.
I know Daniel Jones played really well this season under Brian Daboll (the 2022 NFL Coach of the Year) as he racked up a 67% completion percentage (career high), 3,205 passing yards (career high), 15 passing TDs, 5 INTS (career low), 120 rushing attempts (career high), 708 rushing yards (career high), and 7 rushing TDs (career high), but nearly all of these stats are career highs.
He could follow up this trajectory with four more great seasons under Daboll, but the history of Daniel Jones tells otherwise. All throughout Jones’ professional career, he’s been one of the 10 worst stating quarterbacks and a turnover machine as he only averaged 2,799 passing yards and had 65 turnovers prior to last season.
There’s just simply a far greater likelihood that Jones regressed back into a 2,800-3,000 passing yard and 15 passing TD quarterback than becoming a 4,000 passing yard and 35 TD quarterback in 2023/24.
And, if you’re paying someone $40M+/season, you’d want a little more production than barely cracking 3,000 passing yards and just 15 passing TDs. Those are Justin Fields stats…and we’ve seen where that has gotten the Chicago Bears.
I’m not saying Jones is underserving of being in the NFL or even having a starting job, but he’s most definitely not a $160M player or a $40M/year guy. In a normal world, he would be making $25-$30M/season and not be only the 7th quarterback in league history to breach the $40M/year barrier.
As for Saquon Barkley, the Giants tagging him was a smart option…for now.
Barkley had his best season since his rookie year (2018) as he finished with 295 CAR, 1,312 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs, 57 REC, and 338 receiving yards in route to leading the Giants to their first playoff victory in over a decade. Unlike Daniel Jones, Barkley proved his innate talent and dormant abilities (he has been injured for so many years) as he was the heart and soul of not only the Giants offense, but the entire team as well.
If Barkley didn’t have career highs in rushing attempts and rushing yards this season, the Giants would not have beat out the Commanders and Packers for the 6th Wild Card spot in the NFC or beaten the Vikings in the Wild Card game. Even though he’s been injured for the better part of the last two seasons, he’s still been one of the best running backs in the league. And this season proved it.
Unfortunately for Barkley, his injury history and the nature of the position he plays dictates that he shouldn’t receive a long-term contract.
Not only has Barkley been horribly plagued with knee and ankle injuries (two of the most important body parts for a running back) throughout his young career, but the history of teams paying star running backs lucrative, long-term contracts is abysmal.
Great running backs like Shaun Alexander (Seahawks 2000-08), Demarco Murray (Eagles: 2015), Adrian Peterson (Vikings: 2007-16), Le’Veon Bell (Jets: 2019-20), Todd Gurley (Rams: 2015-19), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers: 2017-22), and Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys: 2016-present day) all earned massive contracts from the, respective, teams I listed next to their names, but ended up significantly dropping off only a few years afterwards.
The only player I’d give leeway to is the great Adrian Peterson as he’s the only one to either win MVP or be the league’s leading rusher after getting his huge deal, but he still found himself on the cutting block by the Vikings in 2017. Needless to say, if these fantastic backs all found themselves washed up less than 6 years after getting a huge deal, is there any hope that Saquon Barkley ends up differently?
Sadly, I think we all know the answer to that question.
Anyways, I hope I’m wrong about everything I’ve written, but I doubt the Giants fans will be thanking the organization for these extensions by the time they expire.
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