Arsenal have finally completed their transfer of Manchester City’s Gabriel Jesus for a stunning (in my opinion) 45-million-euro fee. Though, as is the custom for every Star Wars movie, I have to say that “I have a bad feeling about this”.
To give an analogy as to how I feel about Gabirel Jesus becoming Arsenal’s presumptive starting striker, I would liken it to the scene in Empire Strikes Back where Darth Vader confronts Han Solo, Princess Leia, and Chewbacca at dinner. The three heroes thought they were being given a warm welcome and a much-needed rest, only to then be taken prisoner by the most fearsome man in the galaxy.
Okay, the analogy may be a little off, but my main point is not. I don’t think Gabriel Jesus realizes what he has gotten himself into by leaving the offensive juggernaut in Man City for Arsenal. And I don’t think Arsenal realize that their new Number 9 has missed more Big Chances than he has goals scored.
Just for starters, Gabriel Jesus will be getting WAY LESS service as Arsenal’s Number 9 than when he was Manchester City’s leading man. Going from having Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan, Bernado Silva, Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, Rodri, Jack Grealish, Fernandinho, Kyle Walker, and Joao Cancelo whipping in crosses and through balls to you game after game to having Granit Xhaka and Nicholas Pepe playing you in on goal is a big difference.
Alright, maybe I’m not giving Arsenal enough credit for their offensive capabilities. They do have great, young talented players in Bukayo Saka, Emile Smith Rowe, Martin Odegaard, and Gabriel Martinelli. But, even then, only Saka has an outside chance of getting anywhere near the Man City starting 11.
The point is, Manchester City have the ability to create 15-20 golden scoring chances per game. Arsenal may be able to get 6-8, and that is if they are lucky.
I’m not saying Arsenal are bad, because they are certainly not. They did finish in 5th last season and just narrowly missed out on the Champions League places. The issue is that they do not have the ability to create enough chances for Jesus to score, while Jesus is not a good enough finisher to convert 20-goal seasons on such limited opportunities.
In Jesus’ seven-year spell (2016-22) at Manchester City, the Brazilian striker has missed 70 Big Scoring Chances, while only scoring 58 goals. Yes, you read that right. Gabriel Jesus has missed 70 Grade-A chances compared to scoring just 58 goals.
That’s 10 “should be goals” a season he has missed for over seven years. If he does that at Arsenal, he will be out of the team in no time.
The Gunners need Jesus to be clinical with the limited opportunities they create for him. If he is missing chance after chance (which he has done in his City career), then Arsenal would have just wasted 45 million euros.
Nonetheless, Arsenal have signed a player who has over 50 career Premier League goals to his name. If Jesus can find a consistent goal scoring touch, then he will fit right in to the Gunners starting lineup just fine.
If he struggles to score even the most basic chances, then I fear Jesus will wind up as yet another failed transfer in Arsenal’s recent transfer history.
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