This division has been turned on its head! The AFC East has been taken to the cleaners and then spat back out again with the flurry of offseason moves and transactions to have come.
The division winner for next season will be anyone’s guess.
In what has to be the most volatile division in all of football during this free agency period, the AFC East has undergone massive changes that are bound to shake the status quo for next year’s division winner is really up in the air. And, to be honest, I think we might get a surprising upset.
Okay, I know free agency is always a hectic period for everyone, but doesn’t this year seem a little crazier than others?
I mean, we’ve seen players hope over rivalry fences for huge paydays (Aaron Jones to the Vikings, Patrick Queen to the Steelers,), massive paydays for veteran players (Kirk Cousins to the Falcons for $180M, Christian Wilkins to the Raiders for $110M), and some extremely smart roster decisions (Russell Wilson being picked up by the Steelers for a $1M, Saquon Barkley to the Eagles for just $12M/season for the next three seasons).
But, in my humble opinion, there has been no division more impacted by free agency than the AFC East.
Starting off with the obvious reason why I’m picking the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills, the 4X defending AFC East champions, have been utterly obliterated by free agency. As of this moment, the Bills have seen Jordan Pryor (Starting safety), Micah Hyde (other starting safety), Tredavarious White (starting cornerback), Mitch Morse (starting center), Gabe Davis (deep threat receiver), Isiah McKenzie (slot receiver), Leonard Floyd (starting linebacker), Deontay Harty (starting kick returner), and a good 15 backups and rotation starters to free agency.
And, in return, the Bills have kept AJ Espenosa (good move), DaQuan Jones (not bad, but he is nearly 33 years old on the defensive line), and brough in Nicholas Morrow from the Eagles…who was a part of a defense that collapsed last season. There’s just no other way of saying this: the Bills have been decimated.
In my opinion, it’s going to take a full on miracle for this team to win double digit games next season given their slow and sloppy start to last season WITH all of these key players, while the moral loss of getting beaten by the Chiefs again in the playoffs and losing these core players will be hard to overcome.
Heading a good 2,000 miles south to Miami, the Dolphins are probably the team that has the best chance of winning the division in many people’s eyes. Sure, they lost a lot of key players too, such as Christian Wilkins (Raiders-4 years/$110M), Robert Hunt (Panthers-5 years/$100M), Andrew Van Ginkle (Vikings-2 years/$20M), and Emmanuel Ogbah, Jerome Baker, and Connor Williams still remained unsigned; but they also brought in MANY key players as well.
Jordan Pryor (from Buffalo), Shaq Barrett (from Tampa Bay), Jonnu Smith (from Atlanta), Aaron Brewer (from Tennessee…which probably means C Connor Williams isn’t coming back), Jordyn Brooks (from Seattle), and Anthony Walker Jr. (from Cleveland). Will all of these players perform to their contractual expectations? Probably not.
But can they become better fits than the players the Dolphins lost or might potentially lose? I sure think so…but not so much as to make them my favorites for the AFC East.
Yet, before I get to my pick to win the division title, let me just recap the Patriots offseason thus far in two words: MISERLY DISASTER!
Sure, it’s great that the Patriots resigned some core starters, such as Mike Onwenu, Hunter Henry, and Kendrick Bourne, but the Pats had the 2nd most cap space IN THE NFL coming into free agency and they brought in…Jacoby Brissett on a 1-year, $8M deal and former Commanders backup RB Antonio Gibson on a 3-year, $11M deal.
Is Bob Kraft trying to play The Price Is Right with his free agent signings?
I’m not saying the Patriots needed to spend every penny of that $92M in cap space on this year’s free agent class as they stupidly did four years ago with their cash reserves upon Tom Brady’s departure but signing two players that cost just $11M against the cap is one of the dumbest moves imaginable. Make a play for a big-time free agent.
If it works out, great. You now have a bonified star on either the offense or defense. If it doesn’t work out, then no big deal as that player’s contract will be up in 3-4 years and the team should hopefully be ready to compete for a Super Bowl again by then. But the Krafts, as they have seemingly been doing their entire time in New England, decided to be penny pinchers and set this team up for catastrophic failure next season with no major additions to a 3-14 roster.
Regardless, the team I think has the best chance to the win the AFC East division title next season is: the New York Jets.
I know I sound crazy for suggesting such a thing, and I most definitely am not right in the head for doing so; but just look at the Jets roster and free agent class.
Who did they lose of MAJOR importance? Jordan Whitehead? The free agent market is full of safeties. Laken Tomlinson? Not only did the Jets bring in John Simpson from the Ravens (who was a part of a GOOD offensive line…unlike New York’s), but they also have a Top-15 draft pick to improve their O-Line. Carl Lawson or Bryce Huff? Yeah, it’s not great to see them go, but the Jets have PLENTY of depth in the linebacker and defensive line positions.
And, with the Jets picking up Javon Kinlaw from the NFC Champion 49ers and Tyrod Taylor from the Giants to be an actual backup QB, there’s really no doubt in my eyes as to who of the AFC East teams has had the best offseason thus far. And it’s the boys in green!
I know I’m going to regret this EARLY offseason prediction, but if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t abandon the Jets to join a presidential campaign as the Vice President nominee (yeah, this is a real story that broke today), I’m taking the Jets to win the AFC East next year!
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