This year’s group stage is bound to be entertaining. The 2022/23 UEFA Champions League group stage draw has produced two groups of death as we will see some huge teams drop into the Europa League come November.
This was one of the best draws in a long time as there is actually some group disparity and competitiveness for a place in the Round of 16 this time around. Instead of the usual one or two competitive, nail-biting groups that ends up needing Matchday 6 to settle the qualifications into the Round of 16, there’s four or five this time that I could see reasons for multiple teams qualifying.
Nevertheless, there hasn’t been totally disparity this year as Manchester City have been given yet another easy group. How is it that Manchester City, at least under the years of Pep Guardiola’s reign, has only ever played a former Champions League winner in the past 12 years once (Barcelona in 2016/17) in the group stage?
In other words, Manchester City’s record of playing Champions Leage winners (in the past 12 years) versus non-Champions League winners (in the past 12 years) is 1-20, or just 4.7% (1/21) of the time. And with City’s past Financial Fair Play issues, it starts to make one wonder how they have gotten so lucky?
For comparison, Barcelona, in that same time span, has played against a former winner (in the past 12 years) 3 times and against a former finalists (in the past 12 years) 4 times in the group stage. Oh, and that finalist count of 4 doesn’t include Manchester City, who were also Champions League Finalists in 2021 (so the number is actually 5, but I didn’t want to add City in the comparison for clarity’s sake).
Anyway, let’s move on from City and their dodgy Champions League group stage record and discuss Group A and Group C: “The Groups of Death”.
I’ll start with Group A first as that’s the easy of the two to predict:
With the group hosting Liverpool, Napoli, Ajax, and newly entered Rangers, it’s obvious that Liverpool should easily come out on top. Yet, if Liverpool’s early Premier League struggles continue into September, October, and November, then maybe the other three might have a chance to prey upon a weakened Reds side.
But I don’t see that happening. However, I do see a grueling, ruthless fight for the second and final Round of 16 qualification spot occurring, which is where the “Group of Death” label come from. If this was last season, I would have predicted Ajax to go through based on their player quality and managerial superiority over Napoli and Rangers. Yet, with all of their turnover and losses this summer, I think it’s Napoli’s spot to lose.
As for Group C, the true “Group of Death” consisting of Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Inter Milan, and Viktoria Plzen, this one will be a true battle across all six games each team will play. Well, expect for Viktoria Plzen as they’ll be lucky to just score a goal. They’re coming in last.
Okay, my predictions for the “superpowers” of the group are as follows: 1. Bayern Munich, 2. Inter Milan, 3. Barcelona. Yes, I think Barcelona will be the team that drops down to the Europa League because of one huge liability: their defense.
With Jules Kounde still unsigned, Barcelona is going to struggle with stopping Bayern Munich’s high-powered offense, even though they have taken Robert Lewandowski out of that mix.
As long as Inter Milan can beat the Catalonian giants once (or even draw both games against them and beat Bayern once), which Benfica showed was possible last season, then they should have enough points and a superior GD to make it into the Round of 16 over Barca. But that’s obviously easier said than done.
Are my predictions going to be 100% wrong? Probably. Will Manchester City fail to win the Champions League (even though it’s been practically fed to them on a silver spoon) again? Obviously. Will this group stage go down as one of the most entertaining, unpredictable, and exciting in Champions League history? Hopefully, as that’s why we love this great competition.
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